How often to pros make a ball on a break, how often do they win when breaking, and how often do they break and run?
Below are concise summaries of typical break statistics percentages from recent major pro tournaments from data posted by user “AtLarge” on AZB. They are broken down into:
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9-ball:
| tournament | year | conditions (see below) | made ball on break (w/o foul) | breaker won game | break and run |
| Reyes Cup | 2024 | 9/4/TE/R/9/X/F | 80% | 61% | 28% |
| Hanoi Open | 2024 | 9/4/TE/R/9/X/F | 73% | 65% | 29% |
| US Open | 2024 | 9/4/TE/R/9/X/F | 69% | 47% | 24% |
| European Open | 2024 | 9/4/TE/R/9/X/F | 69% | 51% | 16% |
| World Pool Championship | 2024 | 9/4/TE/R/9/X/F | 70% | 56% | 19% |
| Premier League Pool | 2024 | 9/4/TE/R/9/X/N | 81% | 66% | 32% |
| Derby City Classic | 2024 | 9/4.25/TE/B/9/X/N | 58% | 56% | 25% |
| Turning Stone Classic | 2024 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 65% | 62% | 23% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2023 | 9/4/TR/R/9/X/N | 69% | 51% | 27% |
| Hanoi Open | 2023 | 9/4/TE/R/9/X/F | 75% | 60% | 27% |
| US Open | 2023 | 9/4/TE/R/9/X/F | 73% | 54% | 21% |
| Turning Stone Classic | 2023 | 9/4.25/TR/O/1/X/N | 66% | 55% | 23% |
| World Cup of Pool | 2023 | 9/4/TE/R/9/X/F | 79% | 58% | 26% |
| Spanish Open | 2023 | 9/4/TE/R/9/X/F | 78% | 59% | 23% |
| UK Open | 2023 | 9/4/TE/R/9/X/F | 74% | 60% | 32% |
| Scottish Open | 2023 | 9/4.25/TE/R/9/X/F | 75% | 60% | 27% |
| World Pool Masters | 2023 | 9/4/TR/R/9/X/F | 71% | 62% | 31% |
| World Pool Championship | 2023 | 9/4.25/TE/R/9/X/F | 78% | 60% | 32% |
| Derby City Classic | 2023 | 9/4.25/TE/R/9/A/N | 68% | 59% | 26% |
| Turning Stone Classic – January | 2023 | 9/4.25/TR/O/1/X/N | 62% | 59% | 22% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2022 | 9/4/TR/R/9/X/N | 60% | 60% | 23% |
| International 9-Ball Open | 2022 | 9/4.25/TE/R/9/X/F | 79% | 56% | 29% |
| US Open | 2022 | 9/4.25/TE/R/9/X/F | 79% | 58% | 32% |
| Sandcastle 9-Ball Open | 2022 | 9/4.5/TE/R/9/X/N | 75% | 53% | 34% |
| Turning Stone Classic – September | 2022 | 9/4.5,4.25/TR/O/1/X/N | 58% | 55% | 16% |
| European Open | 2022 | 9/4.25/TR/R/9/X/F | 61% | 50% | 27% |
| World Cup of Pool | 2022 | 9/unk/TR/R/1/A/F | 85% | 61% | 26% |
| UK Open | 2022 | 9/4.25/TR/R/1/A/N | 93% | 66% | 40% |
| World Pool Masters | 2022 | 9/4/TR/R/1/A/N | 91% | 62% | 36% |
| World Pool Championship | 2022 | 9/4.25/TE,TR/R/1/A/N | 92% | 68% | 43% |
| Matchroom Premier League | 2022 | 9/4/TR/R/1/A/N | 84% | 61% | 34% |
| Derby City Classic | 2022 | 9/unk/TE/B/9/A/3 | 73% | 56% | 30% |
| Turning Stone Classic – January | 2022 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 71% | 63% | 30% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2021 | 9/4/TR/R/1/A/N | 86% | 61% | 30% |
| International 9-Ball Open | 2021 | 9/4.25/TE/R/9/X/3 | 65% | 51% | 27% |
| US Open | 2021 | 9/4.25/TR/R/1/A/F | 87% | 63% | 39% |
| World Pool Championship | 2021 | 9/4.25/TE,TR/R/1/A/F | 85% | 65% | 32% |
| World Pool Masters | 2021 | 9/4/TR/R/1/A/N | 93% | 63% | 30% |
| World Cup of Pool | 2021 | 9/unk/TR/R/1/A/N | 78% | 60% | 25% |
| Matchroom Championship League | 2021 | 9/unk/TR/R/1/A/N | 88% | 59% | 35% |
| Michael Montgomery Memorial | 2021 | 7/4.5/TE/B/1/A/N | 96% | 65% | 48% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2020 | 9/4.25/TR/R/1/A/N | 75% | 55% | 27% |
| Derby City Classic | 2020 | 9/unk/TE/B/9/X/3 | 69% | 56% | 29% |
| Turning Stone Classic – January | 2020 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 68% | 59% | 23% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2019 | 9/4.25/TR/R/1/A/N | 76% | 55% | 24% |
| International 9-Ball Open | 2019 | 9/4.5/TE/R/9/X/3 | 65% | 53% | 26% |
| Turning Stone Classic – August | 2019 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 61% | 61% | 22% |
| Diamond Las Vegas Open | 2019 | 9/unk/TR/B/1/A/3 | 71% | 63% | 36% |
| World Cup of Pool | 2019 | 9/unk/TR/R/9/A/N | 68% | 67% | 20% |
| US Open | 2019 | 9/4.5/TE/R/9/A/N | 78% | 65% | 34% |
| World Pool Masters | 2019 | 9/unk/TR/R/1/A/N | 79% | 62% | 30% |
| Derby City Classic | 2019 | 9/unk/TE/B/9/X/3 | 69% | 56% | 27% |
| Turning Stone Classic – January | 2019 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 60% | 55% | 24% |
| WPA World 9-Ball Championship | 2018 | 9/unk/TE/B,R/1/A/3 | 84% | 64% | 49% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2018 | 9/4.5/TR/R/1/A/N | 85% | 67% | 38% |
| International 9-Ball Open | 2018 | 9/4.5/TE/R/9/X/3 | 62% | 52% | 22% |
| Turning Stone Classic – August | 2018 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 60% | 56% | 16% |
| World Cup of Pool | 2018 | 9/unk/TR/R/1/A/N | 77% | 59% | 27% |
| World Pool Masters | 2018 | 9/unk/TR/R/1/A/N | 60% | 56% | 24% |
| Derby City Classic | 2018 | 9/unk/TR/B/1/A/N | 73% | 62% | 37% |
| Turning Stone Classic – January | 2018 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 66% | 61% | 22% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2017 | 9/4.25/TR/R/1/A/N | 81% | 58% | 23% |
| US Open | 2017 | 9/4.5/TE/R/9/X/3 | 62% | 57% | 26% |
| Turning Stone Classic – September | 2017 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 59% | 53% | 17% |
| Turning Stone Classic – January | 2017 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 58% | 53% | 20% |
| Derby City Classic | 2017 | 9/unk/TR/B/1/A/N | 62% | 55% | 21% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2016 | 9/4.25/TR/R/9/A/N | 76% | 62% | 25% |
| US Open | 2016 | 9/4.5/TE/B/9/X/3 | 57% | 54% | 23% |
| Turning Stone Classic – August | 2016 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 54% | 55% | 18% |
| WPA World 9-Ball Championship | 2016 | 9/unk/TE/B,R/9/A/3 | 71% | 56% | 28% |
| Derby City Classic | 2016 | 9/unk/TR/B/1/A/N | 68% | 62% | 33% |
| Turning Stone Classic – January | 2016 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 56% | 52% | 19% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2015 | 9/4.25/TR/R/9/A/N | 70% | 56% | 26% |
| US Open | 2015 | 9/4.5/TE/B/9/X/3 | 62% | 53% | 23% |
| World Cup of Pool | 2015 | 9/unk/TR/R/9/A/N | 66% | 52% | 16% |
| WPA World 9-Ball Championship | 2015 | 9/unk/TE/B/1/A/3 | 88% | 62% | 37% |
| Turning Stone Classic – August | 2015 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 59% | 57% | 23% |
| Derby City Classic | 2015 | 9/4.5/TR/B/1/A/N | 65% | 57% | 29% |
| Turning Stone Classic – January | 2015 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 61% | 52% | 21% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2014 | 9/unk/TR/R/9/A/N | 76% | 61% | 34% |
| US Open | 2014 | 9/4.5/TR/B/9/X/3 | 53% | 50% | 20% |
| Turning Stone Classic – September | 2014 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 64% | 60% | 19% |
| WPA World 9-Ball Championship | 2014 | 9/unk/TE/R/1/A/3 | 89% | 61% | 35% |
| Derby City Classic | 2014 | 9/4.5/TR/B/1/A/N | 75% | 58% | 34% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2013 | 9/unk/TR/R/9/X/N | 33% | 44% | 10% |
| US Open | 2013 | 9/4.5/TR/B/1/X/3 | 63% | 56% | 21% |
| Turning Stone Classic – September | 2013 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 56% | 56% | 19% |
| Southern Classic | 2013 | 9/4.5/TR/B/1/A/N | 76% | 58% | 35% |
| Derby City Classic | 2013 | 9/4.5/TR/B/1/A/N | 69% | 57% | 28% |
| Turning Stone Classic – January | 2013 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 58% | 51% | 19% |
| Mosconi Cup | 2012 | 9/unk/TR/R/9/A/3 | 74% | 51% | 24% |
| US Open | 2012 | 9/4.5/TR/B/1/X/3 | 62% | 55% | 23% |
| Turning Stone Classic – August | 2012 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 68% | 53% | 21% |
| Turning Stone Classic – December | 2011 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 65% | 53% | 23% |
| US Open | 2011 | 9/unk/TR/B/1/X/3 | 62% | 58% | 21% |
| Turning Stone Classic – September | 2011 | 9/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N | 60% | 48% | 22% |
Conditions: Table – 10′ (10), 9′ (9), 7′ (7) / Corner Pocket Mouth Size – in inches or unknown (unk) / Rack – template (TE), triangle (TR) / Who Racks – breaker (B), opponent (O), ref (R) / Rack Position – 1 on spot (1), 9 on spot (9) / CB Location – anywhere (A), inside box (X) / Break Rule – 3-point rule (3), “forceful” break required (F), none (N)
10-ball:
| tournament | year | conditions (see below) | made ball on break (w/o foul) | breaker won game | break and run |
| Pro Billiard Series – Puerto Rico | 2024 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 49% | 55% | 14% |
| Predator World 10-Ball Championship | 2024 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 55% | 53% | 19% |
| Pro Billiard Series – Las Vegas | 2024 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 48% | 54% | 13% |
| Derby City Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2024 | 10/4.25/TE/B | 59% | 54% | 18% |
| Pro Billiard Series – Puerto Rico | 2023 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 45% | 57% | 12% |
| Pro Billiard Series – Wisconsin | 2023 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 47% | 53% | 16% |
| Predator World 10-Ball Championship | 2023 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 56% | 52% | 13% |
| Derby City Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2023 | 10/4.125/TE/B | 66% | 57% | 21% |
| Pro Billiard Series – Puerto Rico | 2022 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 45% | 43% | 14% |
| International Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2022 | 10/4.5/TE/R | 66% | 54% | 20% |
| Pro Billiard Series – Ohio | 2022 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 50% | 56% | 14% |
| Pro Billiard Series – Michigan | 2022 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 58% | 58% | 22% |
| Predator World 10-Ball Championship | 2022 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 63% | 52% | 19% |
| Pro Billiard Series – Las Vegas | 2022 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 52% | 51% | 11% |
| Pro Billiard Series – Wisconsin | 2022 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 61% | 59% | 21% |
| Derby City Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2022 | 10/4.5/TE/B | 70% | 54% | 28% |
| Pro Billiard Series – Arizona | 2022 | 9/4.25/TR/R | 50% | 53% | 16% |
| International Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2021 | 10/4.5/TE/R | 55% | 51% | 18% |
| Pro Billiard Series – Ohio | 2021 | 9/unk/TR/R | 62% | 53% | 19% |
| Predator World 10-Ball Championship | 2021 | 9/4.5/TR/R | 54% | 48% | 21% |
| Pro Billiard Series – Las Vegas | 2021 | 9/4.5/TR/R | 59% | 54% | 20% |
| Diamond Las Vegas Open | 2020 | 9/4.5/TE/B | 69% | 57% | 30% |
| Derby City Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2020 | 10/4.5/TE/B | 59% | 51% | 19% |
| US Open 10-Ball Championship | 2019 | 9/4.5/TE/B,R | 68% | 61% | 28% |
| Predator World 10-Ball Championship | 2019 | 9/4.5/TE/R | 78% | 65% | 36% |
| Derby City Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2019 | 10/4.5/TE/B | 71% | 56% | 28% |
| World Pool Series – Janaury | 2019 | 9/4.125/TE/B | 72% | 52% | 25% |
| Freezer’s Ice House 10-Ball Challenge | 2018 | 9/4.125/TE/R | 73% | 58% | 23% |
| World Pool Series – June | 2018 | 9/4.25/TE/R | 53% | 51% | 15% |
| Derby City Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2018 | 10/4.5/TE/B | 62% | 51% | 21% |
| Derby City Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2017 | 10/4.5/TE/B | 66% | 51% | 21% |
| US Open 10-Ball Championship | 2016 | 7/4.5/TE/B | 79% | 59% | 38% |
| Super Billiards Expo 10-Ball Pro Players Championship | 2016 | 9/4.5/TR/B | 51% | 49% | 18% |
| Derby City Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2016 | 10/4.5/TE/B | 60% | 50% | 20% |
| Accu-Stats “Make It Happen” Invitational | 2015 | 9/unk/TE/B | 76% | 61% | 33% |
| US Open 10-Ball Championship | 2015 | 7/4.5/TE/B | 72% | 57% | 31% |
| Derby City Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2015 | 10/4.5/TR/B | 49% | 50% | 16% |
| CSI Invitational | 2014 | 9/4.5/TE/R | 65% | 49% | 21% |
| Derby City Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2014 | 10/4.438/TR/B | 58% | 52% | 16% |
| Southern Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2013 | 10/4.5/TR/B | 56% | 53% | 19% |
| Derby City Classic Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge | 2013 | 10/4.438/TR/B | 51% | 46% | 15% |
| Southern Classic Diamond 10-Ball Challenge | 2012 | 10/4.438/TR/B | 53% | 52% | 9% |
| Derby City Classic Fatboy 10-Ball Challenge | 2012 | 9/4.5/TR/B | 56% | 55% | 19% |
| 10-Ball Masters | 2011 | 9/unk/TR/B | 61% | 51% | 19% |
Conditions: Table – 10′ (10), 9′ (9), 7′ (7) / Corner Pocket Mouth Size – in inches or unknown (unk) / Rack – template (TE), triangle (TR) / Who Racks – breaker (B), opponent (O), ref (R)
from Mike Hu (via 9/14/2015 e-mail):
I’ve been tracking the stats compiled by AtLarge for some time now. Here is the data I have from his AZB posts regarding the 9-ball and 10-ball break. I basically wanted to answer the question: how big of an advantage is the break in these 2 rotation games?
9-ball: 3083/5521 (55.8% win-rate of breaker, 11.6% edge)
10-ball: 1139/2139 (53.2% win-rate of breaker, 6.4% edge)The data includes his posts from his very first breaking stats post, up to and including his last such post made on 8/25/15. My data for him is only for games played on a 9-foot table (7-ft and 10-ft table stats weren’t included). The data does however include tournaments that used a magic rack and those that used a traditional triangle rack. I know this muddles the sample data’s “purity” somewhat but I wanted to get a larger sample size in exchange for this “experimental error.”
The empirical data confirms what many (most?) people including myself believe, which is the break is a bigger advantage in 9-ball than in 10-ball. My hypothesis for why this edge exists is because 10-ball has 1 more ball in play which makes it harder to run out, harder to pocket a ball(s) on the break, and more ball congestion/traffic to deal with. I think the sample size is sufficiently large enough such that tracking AtLarge’s future breaking stats posts will probably not change the data by much. I suspect the 9-ball breaker’s edge will stay in the 11.0-11.9% range, and the 10-ball breaker’s edge will be in the 6.0-6.9% range.
8-ball:
| tournament | year | conditions (see below) | made ball on break (w/o foul) | breaker won game | break and run |
| World 8-Ball Championship | 2024 | 9/4.25/TR/R/O | 53% | 67% | 40% |
| US Open 8-Ball Championship | 2024 | 9/4.25/TE/B/O | 78% | 62% | 52% |
| World 8-Ball Championship | 2023 | 9/4.25/TR/R/O | 49% | 53% | 37% |
| World 8-Ball Championship | 2022 | 9/4.25/TR/R/O | 57% | 59% | 42% |
| Bar Box Classic | 2021 | 7/unk/TR/B/T | 67% | 55% | 37% |
| US Open 8-Ball Championship | 2019 | 9/4.5/TR/B/O | 63% | 55% | 43% |
| World Pool Series – August | 2018 | 9/4.25/TE/R/T | 58% | 49% | 31% |
| US Open 8-Ball Championship | 2018 | 9/4.25/TE/B/O | 63% | 54% | 33% |
| World Pool Series – November | 2017 | 9/4/TR/B,R/T | 37% | 47% | 16% |
| US Open 8-Ball Championship | 2017 | 9/4.25/TE/B/O | 68% | 56% | 41% |
| World Pool Series – July | 2017 | 9/4/TR/B,R/T | 47% | 54% | 23% |
| World Pool Series – April | 2017 | 9/4/TR/B,R/T | 45% | 46% | 18% |
| World Pool Series – January | 2017 | 9/4.25/TR/B/T | 53% | 48% | 29% |
| Accu-Stats “Make It Happen” Invitational | 2016 | 9/unk/TE/B/T | 73% | 55% | 41% |
| US Open 8-Ball Championship | 2016 | 7/4.5/TE/B/O | 76% | 64% | 53% |
| US Open 8-Ball Championship | 2015 | 7/4.5/TE/B/O | 67% | 64% | 52% |
| US Bar Table Men’s 8-Ball Championship | 2015 | 7/4.5/TE/B/O | 68% | 58% | 44% |
| World Chinese 8-Ball Masters | 2015 | 9/unk/TE/R/O | 70% | 66% | 49% |
| Accu-Stats “Make It Happen” Invitational | 2014 | 9/4.5/TE/R/O | 73% | 61% | 50% |
| CSI Invitational 8-Ball Championship | 2014 | 9/4.5/TE/B/O | 71% | 64% | 54% |
Conditions: Table – 10′ (10), 9′ (9), 7′ (7) / Corner Pocket Mouth Size – in inches or unknown (unk) / Rack – template (TE), triangle (TR) / Who Racks – breaker (B), opponent (P), ref (R) / After Break – table open (O), take what you make (T)
Check out “8-Ball Break Stats” (BD, August, 2016) and the video below for some interesting statistics for top pro players playing 8-ball on bar-boxes.
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