How often to pros make a ball on a break, how often do they win when breaking, and how often do they break and run?

Below are concise summaries of typical break statistics percentages from recent major pro tournaments from data posted by AtLarge on AZB (under the “Statistics” tab at “Find all threads started by AtLarge”). They are broken down into:

8-ball:

tournamentyearconditions
(see below)
made ball
on break
(w/o foul)
breaker
won game
break
and run
US Open 8-Ball Championship20199/TR/B/O63%55%43%
World Pool Series – August20189/TE/R/T*58%49%31%
US Open 8-Ball Championship20189/TE/B/O63%54%33%
World Pool Series – November20179/TR/B,R/T*37%47%16%
US Open 8-Ball Championship20179/TE/B/O68%56%41%
World Pool Series – July20179/TR/B,R/T*47%54%23%
World Pool Series – April20179/TR/B,R/T*45%46%18%
World Pool Series – January20179/TR/B,R/T*53%48%29%
Accu-Stats “Make It Happen”
Invitational
20169/TE/B/T73%55%41%
US Open 8-Ball Championship20167/TE/B/O76%64%53%
US Open 8-Ball Championship20157/TE/B/O67%64%52%
US Bar Table Men’s
8-Ball Championship
20157/TE/B/O68%58%44%
World Chinese 8-Ball Masters20159/TE/R/O*70%66%49%
Accu-Stats “Make It Happen”
Invitational
20149/TE/R/O73%61%50%
CSI Invitational 8-Ball
Championship
20149/TR/B/O71%64%54%

Conditions: Table – 10′ (10), 9′ (9), 7′ (7) / Rack – template (TE), triangle (TR) / Who Racks – breaker (B), opponent (P), ref (R) / After Break – table open (O), take what you make (T)

*: special break rules and/or tight pockets

Check out “8-Ball Break Stats” (BD, August, 2016) for some interesting statistics for top pro players playing 8-ball on bar-boxes.

9-ball:

tournamentyearconditions
(see below)
made ball
on break
(w/o foul)
breaker
won game
break
and run
Diamond Las Vegas Open20199/TR/B/1/A/371%63%36%
World Cup of Pool20199/TR/R/9/A/N68%67%20%
US Open 9-Ball
Championship
20199/TE/R/9/A/N78%65%34%
World Pool Masters20199/TR/R/1/A/N79%62%30%
Mosconi Cup20189/TR/R/1/A/N85%67%38%
International 9-Ball Open20189/TE/R/9/B/362%52%22%
Turning Stone Classic
9-ball Open
20189/TR/B/1/B/N60%56%16%
World Cup of Pool20189/TR/R/1/A/N77%59%27%
World Pool Masters20189/TR/R/1/A/N60%56%24%
Derby City Classic20189/TR/B/1/A/N73%62%37%
Turning Stone Classic
9-ball Open
20179/TR/B/1/B/N66%61%22%
Mosconi Cup20179/TR/R/1/A/N81%58%23%
US Open 9-Ball
Championship
20179/TE/R/9/B/362%57%26%
Turning Stone Classic
9-ball Open
20179/TR/B/1/B/N58%53%20%
Derby City Classic20179/TR/B/1/A/N62%55%21%
Mosconi Cup20169/TR/R/9/A/N76%62%25%
US Open 9-Ball
Championship
20169/TE/B/9/B/357%54%23%
Turning Stone Classic
9-ball Open
20169/TR/B/1/B/N54%55%18%
WPA World 9-Ball
Championship
20169/TE/B,R/9/A/371%56%28%
Derby City Classic20169/TR/B/1/A/N68%62%33%
Mosconi Cup20159/TR/R/9/A/N70%56%26%
US Open 9-Ball
Championship
20159/TE/B/9/B/362%53%23%
World Cup of Pool20159/TR/R/9/A/N66%52%16%
WPA World 9-Ball
Championship
20159/TE/B/1/A/388%62%37%
Turning Stone Classic
9-ball Open
20159/TR/B/1/B/N59%57%23%
Derby City Classic20159/TR/B/1/A/N65%57%29%
Mosconi Cup20149/TR/R/9/A/N76%61%34%
US Open 9-Ball
Championship
20149/TR/B/9/B/353%50%20%
WPA World 9-Ball
Championship
20149/TE/R/1/A/389%61%35%
Derby City Classic20149/TR/B/1/A/N75%58%34%
US Open 9-Ball
Championship
20139/TR/B/1/B/363%56%21%
US Open 9-Ball
Championship
20129/TR/B/1/B/362%55%23%

Conditions: Table – 10′ (10), 9′ (9), 7′ (7) / Rack – template (TE), triangle (TR) / Who Racks – breaker (B), opponent (O), ref (R) / Rack Position – 1 on spot (1), 9 on spot (9) / CB Location – anywhere (A), inside box (B) / Break Rule – 3-point rule (3), none (N)

10-ball:

<
tournamentyearconditions
(see below)
made ball
on break
(w/o foul)
breaker
won game
break
and run
US Open 10-Ball
Championship
20199/TE/B,R68%61%28%
Predator World 10-Ball
Championship
20199/TE/R78%65%36%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201910/TE/B71%56%28%
Freezer’s Ice House
10-Ball Challenge
20189/TE/R73%58%23%
World Pool Series – June20189/TE/R53%51%15%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201810/TE/B62%51%21%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201710/TE/B66%51%21%
US Open 10-Ball
Championship
20167/TE/B79%59%38%
Super Billiards Expo 10-Ball
Pro Players Championship
20169/TR/B51%49%18%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201610/TE/B60%50%20%
Accu-Stats “Make It Happen”
Invitational
20159/TE/B76%61%33%
US Open 10-Ball
Championship
20157/TE/B72%57%31%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201510/TR/B49%50%16%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201410/TR/B58%52%16%
Southern Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201310/TR/B56%53%19%

Conditions: Table – 10′ (10), 9′ (9), 7′ (7) / Rack – template (TE), triangle (TR) / Who Racks – breaker (B), opponent (O), ref (R)


from Mike Hu (via 9/14/2015 e-mail):

I’ve been tracking the stats compiled by AtLarge for some time now. Here is the data I have from his AZB posts regarding the 9-ball and 10-ball break. I basically wanted to answer the question: how big of an advantage is the break in these 2 rotation games?

9-ball: 3083/5521 (55.8% win-rate of breaker, 11.6% edge)
10-ball: 1139/2139 (53.2% win-rate of breaker, 6.4% edge)

The data includes his posts from his very first breaking stats post, up to and including his last such post made on 8/25/15. My data for him is only for games played on a 9-foot table (7-ft and 10-ft table stats weren’t included). The data does however include tournaments that used a magic rack and those that used a traditional triangle rack. I know this muddles the sample data’s “purity” somewhat but I wanted to get a larger sample size in exchange for this “experimental error.”

The empirical data confirms what many (most?) people including myself believe, which is the break is a bigger advantage in 9-ball than in 10-ball. My hypothesis for why this edge exists is because 10-ball has 1 more ball in play which makes it harder to run out, harder to pocket a ball(s) on the break, and more ball congestion/traffic to deal with. I think the sample size is sufficiently large enough such that tracking AtLarge’s future breaking stats posts will probably not change the data by much. I suspect the 9-ball breaker’s edge will stay in the 11.0-11.9% range, and the 10-ball breaker’s edge will be in the 6.0-6.9% range.

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