How often to pros make a ball on a break, how often do they win when breaking, and how often do they break and run?

Below are concise summaries of typical break statistics percentages from recent major pro tournaments from data posted by user “AtLarge” on AZB. They are broken down into:


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9-ball:

tournamentyearconditions
(see below)
made ball
on break
(w/o foul)
breaker
won game
break
and run
Derby City Classic20249/4.25/TE/B/9/X/N58%56%25%
Turning Stone Classic20249/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N65%62%23%
Mosconi Cup20239/4/TR/R/9/X/N69%51%27%
Hanoi Open20239/4/TE/R/9/X/F75%60%27%
US Open20239/4/TE/R/9/X/F73%54%21%
Turning Stone Classic20239/4.25/TR/O/1/X/N66%55%23%
World Cup of Pool20239/4/TE/R/9/X/F79%58%26%
Spanish Open20239/4/TE/R/9/X/F78%59%23%
UK Open20239/4/TE/R/9/X/F74%60%32%
Scottish Open20239/4.25/TE/R/9/X/F75%60%27%
World Pool Masters20239/4/TR/R/9/X/F71%62%31%
World Pool Championship20239/4.25/TE/R/9/X/F78%60%32%
Derby City Classic20239/4.25/TE/R/9/A/N68%59%26%
Turning Stone Classic – January20239/4.25/TR/O/1/X/N62%59%22%
Mosconi Cup20229/4/TR/R/9/X/N60%60%23%
International 9-Ball Open2022 9/4.25/TE/R/9/X/F79%56%29%
US Open20229/4.25/TE/R/9/X/F79%58%32%
Sandcastle 9-Ball Open20229/4.5/TE/R/9/X/N75%53%34%
Turning Stone Classic – September20229/4.5,4.25/TR/O/1/X/N58%55%16%
European Open20229/4.25/TR/R/9/X/F61%50%27%
World Cup of Pool20229/unk/TR/R/1/A/F85%61%26%
UK Open20229/4.25/TR/R/1/A/N93%66%40%
World Pool Masters20229/4/TR/R/1/A/N91%62%36%
World Pool Championship20229/4.25/TE,TR/R/1/A/N92%68%43%
Matchroom Premier League20229/4/TR/R/1/A/N84%61%34%
Derby City Classic20229/unk/TE/B/9/A/373%56%30%
Turning Stone Classic – January20229/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N71%63%30%
Mosconi Cup20219/4/TR/R/1/A/N86%61%30%
International 9-Ball Open 2021 9/4.25/TE/R/9/X/365%51%27%
US Open 20219/4.25/TR/R/1/A/F87%63%39%
World Pool Championship20219/4.25/TE,TR/R/1/A/F85%65%32%
World Pool Masters20219/4/TR/R/1/A/N93%63%30%
World Cup of Pool20219/unk/TR/R/1/A/N78%60%25%
Matchroom Championship League20219/unk/TR/R/1/A/N88%59%35%
Michael Montgomery Memorial20217/4.5/TE/B/1/A/N96%65%48%
Mosconi Cup20209/4.25/TR/R/1/A/N75%55%27%
Derby City Classic20209/unk/TE/B/9/X/369%56%29%
Turning Stone Classic – January20209/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N68%59%23%
Mosconi Cup20199/4.25/TR/R/1/A/N76%55%24%
International 9-Ball Open20199/4.5/TE/R/9/X/365%53%26%
Turning Stone Classic – August20199/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N61%61%22%
Diamond Las Vegas Open20199/unk/TR/B/1/A/371%63%36%
World Cup of Pool20199/unk/TR/R/9/A/N68%67%20%
US Open20199/4.5/TE/R/9/A/N78%65%34%
World Pool Masters20199/unk/TR/R/1/A/N79%62%30%
Derby City Classic20199/unk/TE/B/9/X/369%56%27%
Turning Stone Classic – January20199/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N60%55%24%
WPA World 9-Ball
Championship
20189/unk/TE/B,R/1/A/384%64%49%
Mosconi Cup20189/4.5/TR/R/1/A/N85%67%38%
International 9-Ball Open20189/4.5/TE/R/9/X/362%52%22%
Turning Stone Classic – August20189/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N60%56%16%
World Cup of Pool20189/unk/TR/R/1/A/N77%59%27%
World Pool Masters20189/unk/TR/R/1/A/N60%56%24%
Derby City Classic20189/unk/TR/B/1/A/N73%62%37%
Turning Stone Classic – January20189/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N66%61%22%
Mosconi Cup20179/4.25/TR/R/1/A/N81%58%23%
US Open20179/4.5/TE/R/9/X/362%57%26%
Turning Stone Classic – September20179/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N59%53%17%
Turning Stone Classic – January20179/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N58%53%20%
Derby City Classic20179/unk/TR/B/1/A/N62%55%21%
Mosconi Cup20169/4.25/TR/R/9/A/N76%62%25%
US Open20169/4.5/TE/B/9/X/357%54%23%
Turning Stone Classic – August20169/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N54%55%18%
WPA World 9-Ball
Championship
20169/unk/TE/B,R/9/A/371%56%28%
Derby City Classic20169/unk/TR/B/1/A/N68%62%33%
Turning Stone Classic – January20169/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N56%52%19%
Mosconi Cup20159/4.25/TR/R/9/A/N70%56%26%
US Open20159/4.5/TE/B/9/X/362%53%23%
World Cup of Pool20159/unk/TR/R/9/A/N66%52%16%
WPA World 9-Ball
Championship
20159/unk/TE/B/1/A/388%62%37%
Turning Stone Classic – August20159/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N59%57%23%
Derby City Classic20159/4.5/TR/B/1/A/N65%57%29%
Turning Stone Classic – January20159/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N61%52%21%
Mosconi Cup20149/unk/TR/R/9/A/N76%61%34%
US Open20149/4.5/TR/B/9/X/353%50%20%
Turning Stone Classic – September20149/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N64%60%19%
WPA World 9-Ball
Championship
20149/unk/TE/R/1/A/389%61%35%
Derby City Classic20149/4.5/TR/B/1/A/N75%58%34%
Mosconi Cup20139/unk/TR/R/9/X/N33%44%10%
US Open20139/4.5/TR/B/1/X/363%56%21%
Turning Stone Classic – September20139/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N56%56%19%
Southern Classic20139/4.5/TR/B/1/A/N76%58%35%
Derby City Classic20139/4.5/TR/B/1/A/N69%57%28%
Turning Stone Classic – January20139/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N58%51%19%
Mosconi Cup20129/unk/TR/R/9/A/374%51%24%
US Open20129/4.5/TR/B/1/X/362%55%23%
Turning Stone Classic – August20129/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N68%53%21%
Turning Stone Classic – December20119/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N65%53%23%
US Open20119/unk/TR/B/1/X/362%58%21%
Turning Stone Classic – September20119/4.5/TR/O/1/X/N60%48%22%

Conditions: Table – 10′ (10), 9′ (9), 7′ (7) / Corner Pocket Mouth Size – in inches or unknown (unk) / Rack – template (TE), triangle (TR) / Who Racks – breaker (B), opponent (O), ref (R) / Rack Position – 1 on spot (1), 9 on spot (9) / CB Location – anywhere (A), inside box (X) / Break Rule – 3-point rule (3), “forceful” break required (F), none (N)

10-ball:

tournamentyearconditions
(see below)
made ball
on break
(w/o foul)
breaker
won game
break
and run
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
202410/4.25/TE/B59%54%18%
US Pro Billiard Series – Puerto Rico20239/4.25/TR/R45%57%12%
US Pro Billiard Series – Wisconsin20239/4.25/TR/R47%53%16%
Predator World 10-Ball
Championship
20239/4.25/TR/R56%52%13%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
202310/4.125/TE/B66%57%21%
US Pro Billiard Series – Puerto Rico20229/4.25/TR/R45%43%14%
International Bigfoot
10-Ball Challenge
202210/4.5/TE/R66%54%20%
US Pro Billiard Series – Ohio20229/4.25/TR/R50%56%14%
US Pro Billiard Series – Michigan20229/4.25/TR/R58%58%22%
Predator World 10-Ball
Championship
20229/4.25/TR/R63%52%19%
US Pro Billiard Series – Las Vegas20229/4.25/TR/R52%51%11%
US Pro Billiard Series – Wisconsin20229/4.25/TR/R61%59%21%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
202210/4.5/TE/B70%54%28%
US Pro Billiard Series – Arizona20229/4.25/TR/R50%53%16%
International Bigfoot
10-Ball Challenge
202110/4.5/TE/R55%51%18%
US Pro Billiard Series – Ohio20219/unk/TR/R62%53%19%
Predator World 10-Ball
Championship
20219/4.5/TR/R54%48%21%
US Pro Billiard Series – Las Vegas20219/4.5/TR/R59%54%20%
Diamond Las Vegas Open20209/4.5/TE/B69%57%30%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
202010/4.5/TE/B59%51%19%
US Open 10-Ball
Championship
20199/4.5/TE/B,R68%61%28%
Predator World 10-Ball
Championship
20199/4.5/TE/R78%65%36%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201910/4.5/TE/B71%56%28%
World Pool Series – Janaury20199/4.125/TE/B72%52%25%
Freezer’s Ice House
10-Ball Challenge
20189/4.125/TE/R73%58%23%
World Pool Series – June20189/4.25/TE/R53%51%15%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201810/4.5/TE/B62%51%21%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201710/4.5/TE/B66%51%21%
US Open 10-Ball
Championship
20167/4.5/TE/B79%59%38%
Super Billiards Expo 10-Ball
Pro Players Championship
20169/4.5/TR/B51%49%18%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201610/4.5/TE/B60%50%20%
Accu-Stats “Make It Happen”
Invitational
20159/unk/TE/B76%61%33%
US Open 10-Ball
Championship
20157/4.5/TE/B72%57%31%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201510/4.5/TR/B49%50%16%
CSI Invitational20149/4.5/TE/R65%49%21%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201410/4.438/TR/B58%52%16%
Southern Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201310/4.5/TR/B56%53%19%
Derby City Classic
Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge
201310/4.438/TR/B51%46%15%
Southern Classic
Diamond 10-Ball Challenge
201210/4.438/TR/B53%52%9%
Derby City Classic
Fatboy 10-Ball Challenge
20129/4.5/TR/B56%55%19%
10-Ball Masters20119/unk/TR/B61%51%19%

Conditions: Table – 10′ (10), 9′ (9), 7′ (7) / Corner Pocket Mouth Size – in inches or unknown (unk) / Rack – template (TE), triangle (TR) / Who Racks – breaker (B), opponent (O), ref (R)


from Mike Hu (via 9/14/2015 e-mail):

I’ve been tracking the stats compiled by AtLarge for some time now. Here is the data I have from his AZB posts regarding the 9-ball and 10-ball break. I basically wanted to answer the question: how big of an advantage is the break in these 2 rotation games?

9-ball: 3083/5521 (55.8% win-rate of breaker, 11.6% edge)
10-ball: 1139/2139 (53.2% win-rate of breaker, 6.4% edge)

The data includes his posts from his very first breaking stats post, up to and including his last such post made on 8/25/15. My data for him is only for games played on a 9-foot table (7-ft and 10-ft table stats weren’t included). The data does however include tournaments that used a magic rack and those that used a traditional triangle rack. I know this muddles the sample data’s “purity” somewhat but I wanted to get a larger sample size in exchange for this “experimental error.”

The empirical data confirms what many (most?) people including myself believe, which is the break is a bigger advantage in 9-ball than in 10-ball. My hypothesis for why this edge exists is because 10-ball has 1 more ball in play which makes it harder to run out, harder to pocket a ball(s) on the break, and more ball congestion/traffic to deal with. I think the sample size is sufficiently large enough such that tracking AtLarge’s future breaking stats posts will probably not change the data by much. I suspect the 9-ball breaker’s edge will stay in the 11.0-11.9% range, and the 10-ball breaker’s edge will be in the 6.0-6.9% range.

8-ball:

tournamentyearconditions
(see below)
made ball
on break
(w/o foul)
breaker
won game
break
and run
World 8-Ball Championship20239/4.25/TR/R/O49%53%37%
World 8-Ball Championship20229/4.25/TR/R/O57%59%42%
Bar Box Classic20217/unk/TR/B/T67%55%37%
US Open 8-Ball Championship20199/4.5/TR/B/O63%55%43%
World Pool Series – August20189/4.25/TE/R/T58%49%31%
US Open 8-Ball Championship20189/4.25/TE/B/O63%54%33%
World Pool Series – November20179/4/TR/B,R/T37%47%16%
US Open 8-Ball Championship20179/4.25/TE/B/O68%56%41%
World Pool Series – July20179/4/TR/B,R/T47%54%23%
World Pool Series – April20179/4/TR/B,R/T45%46%18%
World Pool Series – January20179/4.25/TR/B/T53%48%29%
Accu-Stats “Make It Happen”
Invitational
20169/unk/TE/B/T73%55%41%
US Open 8-Ball Championship20167/4.5/TE/B/O76%64%53%
US Open 8-Ball Championship20157/4.5/TE/B/O67%64%52%
US Bar Table Men’s
8-Ball Championship
20157/4.5/TE/B/O68%58%44%
World Chinese 8-Ball Masters20159/unk/TE/R/O70%66%49%
Accu-Stats “Make It Happen”
Invitational
20149/4.5/TE/R/O73%61%50%
CSI Invitational 8-Ball
Championship
20149/4.5/TE/B/O71%64%54%

Conditions: Table – 10′ (10), 9′ (9), 7′ (7) / Corner Pocket Mouth Size – in inches or unknown (unk) / Rack – template (TE), triangle (TR) / Who Racks – breaker (B), opponent (P), ref (R) / After Break – table open (O), take what you make (T)

Check out “8-Ball Break Stats” (BD, August, 2016) and the video below for some interesting statistics for top pro players playing 8-ball on bar-boxes.


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